Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Named source: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br · End date Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Seat / Electoral CertificationGoverned by dadosabertos.tse.jus.br

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official election authority (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br). Official election authority (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br); publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with dadosabertos.tse.jus.br deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Polymarket

Named source: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 5

Named primary resolution source

Official election authority (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br) · https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York

Action trigger

Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the S…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with dadosabertos.tse.jus.br deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).