Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Named source: UEFA official · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Announcement Is EnoughGoverned by UEFA official

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Announced

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on UEFA official results; credible reporting as a last resort. UEFA official results; credible reporting as a last resort; posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: A qualifying official announcement settles YES; implementation is not required. Cutoff: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (scheduled start). Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).

Source named: UEFA official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Polymarket

Named source: UEFA official

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 5

Named primary resolution source

UEFA official results; credible reporting as a last resort

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (scheduled start); hard deadline Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET America/New_York

Action trigger

AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…ce Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If two or more players are tied for 2nd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 2nd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 2nd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.