Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Named source: interieur.gouv.fr (tiebreak) · End date Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Seat / Electoral CertificationGoverned by interieur.gouv.fr (tiebreak)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (interieur.gouv.fr) decides if ambiguous. Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (interieur.gouv.fr) decides if ambiguous; publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Cutoff: Sun, Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with interieur.gouv.fr deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: interieur.gouv.fr (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Polymarket

Named source: interieur.gouv.fr (tiebreak)

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 5

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (interieur.gouv.fr) decides if ambiguous · https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sun, Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York

Action trigger

Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Mini…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with interieur.gouv.fr deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).