Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Oct 25, 7:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (15/100)

Stated Condition

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Fri, Jun 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Cutoff: Fri, Jun 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

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Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

Low Trap Risk (15/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 15

Named primary resolution source

Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Fri, Jun 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.