Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

Named source: Primary exchange listing · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO on Intraday SpikesGoverned by Primary exchange listing

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Market-Close Snapshot

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Primary exchange's official listing page (official closing price × shares outstanding). Primary exchange's official listing page (official closing price × shares outstanding); publishes the official close each trading day. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Cutoff: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict.

Source named: Primary exchange listing (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

Polymarket

Named source: Primary exchange listing

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 5

Named primary resolution source

Primary exchange's official listing page (official closing price × shares outstanding)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a weekend or exchange holiday (e.g. Sat Oct 31, 2026), the last regular trading close prior to that date governs. America/New_York

Action trigger

Market-Close SnapshotSettles on the value at the regular-session close on the stated date. Intraday touches before the close and after-hours moves do not count. Rule text: "…l resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 3…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict. Kalshi's market-cap contracts must name an explicit reference source and expiration time in their CFTC-filed contract terms, so a photo finish can settle differently on each venue.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.