Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

.gov source: sec.gov · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionOfficial Feed Active (SEC)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Stated Condition

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. Latest SEC release: "SEC Announces Fiscal Year 2027 Examination Priorities" (2d ago).
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Latest Official Agency Releases (SEC)

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Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

.gov source: sec.gov

Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 35

Named primary resolution source

Securities and Exchange Commission · https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated rule for a delayed release (e.g. a government shutdown) or for later revisions to the figure.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.