Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Named source: Official party sources · End date Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Seat / Electoral CertificationGoverned by Official party sources

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (25/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted). Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted); publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) Cutoff: Tue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: Official party sources (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sources

Low Trap Risk (25/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 25

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Tue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) America/New_York

Action trigger

Seat / Electoral CertificationRequires the candidate to win and accept the party's nomination (normally at the convention); leading in delegates or polls is not enough. A later replacement of the nominee does not change the result. Rule text: "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on certification, and media calls can conflict with official results.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.