Trump out as President before 2027?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO on Headline ChatterConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Effective

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle YES; formal signing/enactment before the cutoff is required. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

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Trump out as President before 2027?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus

Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 35

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York

Action trigger

EffectiveRequires the measure to actually take effect; signing or announcing alone does not count. Rule text: "…"Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.