Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?

Named source: Election Commission · End date Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Seat / Electoral Certification · Timezone UnstatedGoverned by Election Commission

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official election authority (Election Commission). Official election authority (Election Commission); publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls) Cutoff: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (venue end date (timezone not stated). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Election Commission deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: Election Commission (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?

Polymarket

Named source: Election Commission

Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 20

Named primary resolution source

Official election authority (Election Commission) · https://www.fec.gov/

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls) unspecified

Action trigger

Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically t…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Election Commission deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).