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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: Observed EventConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

No live price yet · Observed event

Market Implied Odds
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no live price
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
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no orderbook read
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
Observed Event
  • Market pricing & flow: no live Polymarket price or orderbook is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 30
1.
Named primary resolution source
Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
Observed EventSettles when the described event is observed and reported by the named source. Rule text: "…power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdi…"
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated confirmation window for disputed reports; conflicting official statements are settled by UMA token-holder vote.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict. Other venues may define a qualifying event differently, so similar-looking contracts can settle on different facts.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth