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Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Named source: youtube.com

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: Stated ConditionGoverned by youtube.com

No live price yet · Stated condition

Market Implied Odds
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no live price
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
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no orderbook read
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Low Trap Risk (15/100)
Stated Condition
  • Market pricing & flow: no live Polymarket price or orderbook is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: youtube.com. Named URL in rules: youtube.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: youtube.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: youtube.com
Low Trap Risk (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Low 15
1.
Named primary resolution source
Named URL in rules: youtube.com · https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”."
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth