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Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Named source: U.S. government statements · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated Condition · Timezone UnstatedGoverned by U.S. government statements
Market Implied Odds
Pro
live price on Pro
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
Pro
depth read on Pro
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)
Stated Condition
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official U.S. government information. Official U.S. government information; updates when an official statement is issued. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 Cutoff: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (timezone not stated). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: U.S. government statements (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Polymarket

Named source: U.S. government statements
Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 35
1.
Named primary resolution source
Official U.S. government information
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 unspecified
3.
Action trigger
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026."
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth