Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?

.gov source: sec.gov · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO on Intraday SpikesOfficial Feed Active (SEC)

Market Implied Odds

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live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Market-Close Snapshot

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. Latest SEC release: "SEC Announces Fiscal Year 2027 Examination Priorities" (2d ago).
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Cutoff: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

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Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?

Polymarket

.gov source: sec.gov

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 30

Named primary resolution source

Securities and Exchange Commission · https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York

Action trigger

Market-Close SnapshotSettles on the value at the regular-session close on the stated date. Intraday touches before the close and after-hours moves do not count. Rule text: "…r listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indica…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated rule for a delayed release (e.g. a government shutdown) or for later revisions to the figure.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.