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Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Announcement Is EnoughConsensus Source (No Single Feed)
Market Implied Odds
Pro
live price on Pro
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
Pro
depth read on Pro
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
Announced
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: A qualifying official announcement settles YES; implementation is not required. Cutoff: Mon, Dec 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 30
1.
Named primary resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Mon, Dec 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
AnnouncedA qualifying official announcement is enough. Rule text: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptc…"
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth