Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionOfficial Feed Active (FED)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (10/100)

Stated Condition

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release: "Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026" (12d ago).
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Latest Official Agency Releases (FED)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

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Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.gov

Low Trap Risk (10/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 10

Named primary resolution source

Federal Reserve Board / FOMC · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting)."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.