Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO on Intraday SpikesConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

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live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

High Trap Risk (60/100)

Market-Close Snapshot

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus

High Trap Risk (60/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk High 60

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET. As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a weekend or exchange holiday (e.g. Sat Oct 31, 2026), the last regular trading close prior to that date governs. America/New_York

Action trigger

Market-Close SnapshotSettles on the value at the regular-session close on the stated date. Intraday touches before the close and after-hours moves do not count. Rule text: "…st company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: Polymarket specifies only "consensus of credible reporting" without naming Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, CompaniesMarketCap, or SEC diluted vs. basic share counts; if providers disagree in a tight race, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle token-holder dispute.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict. Kalshi's market-cap contracts must name an explicit reference source and expiration time in their CFTC-filed contract terms, so a photo finish can settle differently on each venue.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.