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Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls · End date Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Seat / Electoral Certification · Timezone UnstatedGoverned by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Market Implied Odds
Pro
live price on Pro
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
Pro
depth read on Pro
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Low Trap Risk (15/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not. Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not; calls races on and after election night. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (election day); hard deadline Sat, Jul 31, 2027 Cutoff: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (election day) (timezone not stated). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Low Trap Risk (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Low 15
1.
Named primary resolution source
Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (election day); hard deadline Sat, Jul 31, 2027 unspecified
3.
Action trigger
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…s, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called…"
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth