Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Stated Condition

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Cutoff: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 30

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes"."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.