Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?

Named source: binance.com (1m candle) · End date Nov 1, 12:00 AM ET · Live market: Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors YES TouchGoverned by binance.com (1m candle)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (40/100)

1m Candle High/Low Touch

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored; updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles YES if any single 1-minute candle High/Low touches the strike price, even if price immediately reverses. Cutoff: Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date. Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low).

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)

Moderate Trap Risk (40/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 40

Named primary resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored · https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) America/New_York

Action trigger

1m Candle High/Low TouchResolves the moment a single 1-minute candle on Binance BTC/USDT prints a High/Low at or beyond the level, even a brief wick. Prices on other exchanges, pairs or indexes do not count, and it can settle before the end date. Rule text: "This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the t…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief binance.com USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.