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Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

.gov source: sec.gov

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: Stated ConditionOfficial Feed Active (SEC)

No live price yet · Stated condition

Market Implied Odds
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no live price
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
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no orderbook read
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)
Stated Condition
  • Market pricing & flow: no live Polymarket price or orderbook is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. Latest SEC release: "SEC Announces Fiscal Year 2027 Examination Priorities" (2d ago).
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Latest Official Agency Releases (SEC)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

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Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

.gov source: sec.gov
Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 35
1.
Named primary resolution source
Securities and Exchange Commission · https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date."
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated rule for a delayed release (e.g. a government shutdown) or for later revisions to the figure.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth