Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Named source: portwatch.imf.org · End date Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionGoverned by portwatch.imf.org

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (0/100)

Stated Condition

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: portwatch.imf.org. Named URL in rules: portwatch.imf.org. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sat, Oct 31, 2026 (deadline) Cutoff: Sat, Oct 31, 2026 (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: portwatch.imf.org (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Polymarket

Named source: portwatch.imf.org

Low Trap Risk (0/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 0

Named primary resolution source

Named URL in rules: portwatch.imf.org · https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730,

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sat, Oct 31, 2026 (deadline) America/New_York

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.