Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO Until ConfirmedConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Consensus + Confirmation Window

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Single-outlet breaking reports do not settle YES; requires multi-source consensus or official confirmation. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 30

Named primary resolution source

Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York

Action trigger

Consensus + Confirmation WindowNeeds a qualifying event confirmed by official statements and/or a consensus of credible reporting. Rule text: "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date,…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated confirmation window for disputed reports; conflicting official statements are settled by UMA token-holder vote.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict. Other venues may define a qualifying event differently, so similar-looking contracts can settle on different facts.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.