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Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: Favors NO Until ConfirmedConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

No live price yet · Needs confirmed consensus

Market Implied Odds
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no live price
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
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no orderbook read
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
Consensus + Confirmation Window
  • Market pricing & flow: no live Polymarket price or orderbook is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: Single-outlet breaking reports do not settle YES; requires multi-source consensus or official confirmation. Cutoff: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 30
1.
Named primary resolution source
Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
Consensus + Confirmation WindowNeeds a qualifying event confirmed by official statements and/or a consensus of credible reporting. Rule text: "…representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the…"
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated confirmation window for disputed reports; conflicting official statements are settled by UMA token-holder vote.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict. Other venues may define a qualifying event differently, so similar-looking contracts can settle on different facts.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth