Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO on Headline ChatterConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Effective

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle YES; formal signing/enactment before the cutoff is required. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026 (date from market title). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 35

Named primary resolution source

Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026 (date from market title) America/New_York

Action trigger

EffectiveRequires the measure to actually take effect; signing or announcing alone does not count. Rule text: "…"Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively remov…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.