France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?

Named source: legifrance.gouv.fr · End date Nov 15, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionGoverned by legifrance.gouv.fr

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Stated Condition

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official election authority (legifrance.gouv.fr). Official election authority (legifrance.gouv.fr); publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Apr 3, 1955, 11:59 PM ET Cutoff: Sun, Apr 3, 1955, 11:59 PM ET. If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: legifrance.gouv.fr (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: legifrance.gouv.fr

Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 20

Named primary resolution source

Official election authority (legifrance.gouv.fr)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sun, Apr 3, 1955, 11:59 PM ET America/New_York

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.