Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET

Named source: Chainlink data stream

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: Stated Condition · Timezone UnstatedGoverned by Chainlink data stream

No live price yet · Stated condition

Market Implied Odds

no live price

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

no orderbook read

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Stated Condition

Market pricing & flow: no live Polymarket price or orderbook is tracked for this contract yet.
Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Chainlink price data stream (data.chain.link). Chainlink price data stream (data.chain.link); updates continuously (oracle / index feed). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:45 AM (date from market title) Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:45 AM (date from market title) (timezone not stated). Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (Chainlink data stream).

Source named: Chainlink data stream (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET

Polymarket

Named source: Chainlink data stream

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 30

Named primary resolution source

Chainlink price data stream (data.chain.link) · https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:45 AM (date from market title) unspecified

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (Chainlink data stream); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (Chainlink data stream). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief Chainlink USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.