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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5AM ET

Named source: binance.com

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: Stated Condition · Timezone UnstatedGoverned by binance.com

No live price yet · Stated condition

Market Implied Odds
-
no live price
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
-
no orderbook read
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
Stated Condition
  • Market pricing & flow: no live Polymarket price or orderbook is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Binance BTC/USDT (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored; updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 AM (date from market title) Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 AM (date from market title) (timezone not stated). Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com).

Source named: binance.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5AM ET

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 30
1.
Named primary resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored · https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 AM (date from market title) unspecified
3.
Action trigger
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title."
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief binance.com USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5AM ET: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth