Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?

Named source: UEFA official · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionGoverned by UEFA official

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Stated Condition

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on UEFA official results; credible reporting as a last resort. UEFA official results; credible reporting as a last resort; posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (scheduled start) Cutoff: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (scheduled start). Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).

Source named: UEFA official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?

Polymarket

Named source: UEFA official

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 5

Named primary resolution source

UEFA official results; credible reporting as a last resort

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (scheduled start) America/New_York

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Mbappé" if Kylian Mbappé finishes higher than Lamine Yamal in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Mbappé" if Kylian Mbappé finishes higher than Lamine Yamal in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. This market will resolve to "Yamal" if Lamine Yamal finishes higher than Kylian Mbappé. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.