Game Spread: Tomas Machac (-2.5) vs Fabian Marozsan (+2.5)

Named source: ATP official

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: Full Game Including OvertimeGoverned by ATP official

No live price yet · Full game incl. overtime

Market Implied Odds

no live price

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

no orderbook read

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (10/100)

Match / Game Final

Market pricing & flow: no live Polymarket price or orderbook is tracked for this contract yet.
Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort. ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort; posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the official final result as played, overtime included. Postponed games stay open until completed; cancellations follow the stated fallback. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (scheduled start). Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).

Source named: ATP official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Game Spread: Tomas Machac (-2.5) vs Fabian Marozsan (+2.5)

Polymarket

Named source: ATP official

Low Trap Risk (10/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 10

Named primary resolution source

ATP official results; credible reporting as a last resort

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (scheduled start) America/New_York

Action trigger

Match / Game FinalOfficial final result of the match; forfeits and walkovers follow the special rules stated. Rule text: "This market will resolve to "Tomas Machac" if Tomas Machac wins 2.5 or more total games than Fabian Marozsan in the upcomi…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Tomas Machac" if Tomas Machac wins 2.5 or more total games than Fabian Marozsan in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Fabian Marozsan". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Tomas Machac could no longer have finished 2.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Fabian Marozsan". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.