Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO on Headline ChatterConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (45/100)

Effective

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle YES; formal signing/enactment before the cutoff is required. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

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Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

Moderate Trap Risk (45/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 45

Named primary resolution source

Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) America/New_York

Action trigger

EffectiveRequires the measure to actually take effect; signing or announcing alone does not count. Rule text: "…"Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official inf…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.