Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO Until ConfirmedConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Consensus + Confirmation Window

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Single-outlet breaking reports do not settle YES; requires multi-source consensus or official confirmation. Cutoff: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 30

Named primary resolution source

Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York

Action trigger

Consensus + Confirmation WindowNeeds a qualifying event confirmed by official statements and/or a consensus of credible reporting. Rule text: "…ed. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify o…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated confirmation window for disputed reports; conflicting official statements are settled by UMA token-holder vote.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict. Other venues may define a qualifying event differently, so similar-looking contracts can settle on different facts.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.