Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

Named source: gov.il (tiebreak) · End date Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Seat / Electoral CertificationGoverned by gov.il (tiebreak)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (gov.il) decides if ambiguous. Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (gov.il) decides if ambiguous; publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Cutoff: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with gov.il deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: gov.il (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

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Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

Polymarket

Named source: gov.il (tiebreak)

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 5

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (gov.il) decides if ambiguous · https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York

Action trigger

Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If the blocs remain tied, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with gov.il deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Bibi” (Netanyahu bloc) if Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win a greater combined total of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election than The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu. This market will resolve to “Opp.” (opposition bloc) if The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win a greater combined total of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election than Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. Seats won by any party not named above will not count toward either bloc. If both blocs win the same combined number of seats, this market will resolve to the bloc whose named parties received the greater combined total of valid votes, counting only the votes of named parties that pass the electoral threshold. If the blocs remain tied, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).