Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?

Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com · End date Oct 26, 12:00 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Tracker Count OnlyGoverned by xtracker.polymarket.com

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (0/100)

Tracker Counter Window

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source. Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source; counts posts in near real time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Only the venue tracker count inside the stated window settles this; the raw count on the X profile does not. Cutoff: Counting window: Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Polymarket resolves strictly on xtracker.polymarket.com (deleted posts count if live ~5 minutes.

Source named: xtracker.polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

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Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: xtracker.polymarket.com

Low Trap Risk (0/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 0

Named primary resolution source

Polymarket X Tracker "Post Counter" (xtracker.polymarket.com); X itself only as a secondary source · https://xtracker.polymarket.com

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Counting window: Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 PM ET → Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET America/New_York

Action trigger

Tracker Counter WindowCounts posts inside a fixed window using the venue tracker, not the raw X profile count. Main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts count. Replies are excluded unless they appear on the main feed. Deleted posts still count if live long enough to be captured (~5 minutes). Rule text: "This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 24 12:00 PM ET to October 26, 2026 12:00…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves strictly on xtracker.polymarket.com (deleted posts count if live ~5 minutes; main-feed replies count), which can diverge from the raw post count on the X profile and from any other venue's counting method.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 24 12:00 PM ET to October 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.