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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

.gov source: federalregister.gov · End date Jan 1, 12:00 AM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO on Headline ChatterOfficial Feed Active (FEDREG)
Market Implied Odds
Pro
live price on Pro
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
Pro
depth read on Pro
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
Signed/Enacted
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Federal Register / Congress.gov. Latest FEDREG release: "Ohio Regulatory Program".
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle YES; formal signing/enactment before the cutoff is required. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalregister.gov
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 30
1.
Named primary resolution source
Federal Register / Congress.gov · https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
Signed/EnactedRequires the measure to be signed/enacted; passage or announcement alone does not count. Rule text: "…R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market w…"
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated rule for a delayed release (e.g. a government shutdown) or for later revisions to the figure.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth