Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US before 2027?

.gov source: nhc.noaa.gov · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET

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Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Observed EventOfficial Feed Active (NHC)

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depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

High Trap Risk (55/100)

Observed Event

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on NOAA National Hurricane Center. Latest NHC release: "There are no tropical cyclones at this time.".
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. Cutoff: December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Two traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy.

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Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: nhc.noaa.gov

High Trap Risk (55/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk High 55

Named primary resolution source

NOAA National Hurricane Center advisories · https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. America/New_York

Action trigger

Observed EventLandfall at Category 5 intensity as reported in an NHC advisory.

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

Polymarket: initial qualifying advisory controls even if later retracted; post-season reanalysis only counts if it ADDS a qualifying event. Atlantic season officially ends Nov 30 but the window runs to Dec 31.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Two traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy; (2) advisory vs. post-season TCR: a storm can be upgraded or downgraded in reanalysis, so a venue using the TCR can settle differently from one that uses the initial advisory.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (slug will-any-category-5-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027): Category 5 is defined as maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher per NHC Saffir-Simpson definitions (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and landfall occurs when the surface center intersects the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). Resolves Yes if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane as reported in official NHC advisories between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves based on the initial qualifying NHC advisory regardless of any later retraction or post-season downgrade, while later corrections are counted only if they upgrade a storm into a qualifying Category 5 landfall.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXHURRICANE / hurricane landfall contracts): Source Agency is the NOAA National Hurricane Center. Kalshi contracts specify geographic coastline bounds (including or excluding U.S. territories such as Puerto Rico depending on the series) and settle on official NHC reports published prior to contract expiration, without Polymarket’s asymmetric "initial advisory locks in Yes, post-season upgrade also counts for Yes" rule.