Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 26?

Named source: binance.com (1m candle) · End date Oct 26, 12:00 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO on Intraday SpikesGoverned by binance.com (1m candle)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (15/100)

Timestamp Candle Close

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored; updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Cutoff: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (date from market title). Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle Close).

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 26?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)

Low Trap Risk (15/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 15

Named primary resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored · https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York

Action trigger

Timestamp Candle CloseOnly the final "Close" of the single 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at the stated timestamp counts. Earlier spikes or dips during the day do not matter. Rule text: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in th…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle Close). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief binance.com USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.