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Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Dec 9, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Announcement Is EnoughOfficial Feed Active (FED)
Market Implied Odds
Pro
live price on Pro
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
Pro
depth read on Pro
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Moderate Trap Risk (45/100)
Announced
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release: "Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026" (11d ago).
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: A qualifying official announcement settles YES; implementation is not required. Cutoff: Thu, Sep 17, 2026 (timezone not stated). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Latest Official Agency Releases (FED)

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Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.gov
Moderate Trap Risk (45/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 45
1.
Named primary resolution source
Federal Reserve Board / FOMC · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Thu, Sep 17, 2026 unspecified
3.
Action trigger
AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…duled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market…"
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated rule for a delayed release (e.g. a government shutdown) or for later revisions to the figure.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth