Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Named source: francefootball.fr · End date Oct 26, 11:59 PM ET · View on Polymarket ↗

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionGoverned by francefootball.fr

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (0/100)

Stated Condition

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: francefootball.fr. Named URL in rules: francefootball.fr. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: francefootball.fr (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Polymarket

Named source: francefootball.fr

Low Trap Risk (0/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 0

Named primary resolution source

Named URL in rules: francefootball.fr · https://www.francefootball.fr/

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).