Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Named source: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak) · End date Oct 4, 11:59 PM ET · View on Polymarket ↗

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Seat / Electoral CertificationGoverned by dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br) decides if ambiguous. Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br) decides if ambiguous; publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Cutoff: Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with dadosabertos.tse.jus.br deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Polymarket

Named source: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br (tiebreak)

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 5

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br) decides if ambiguous · https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York

Action trigger

Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the S…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with dadosabertos.tse.jus.br deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).